Deciphering Pakistan’s Post-Election Landscape: Insights from Expert Discourse

Pakistan's Political Discourse

Pakistan's political discourse is complicated, with a wide range of beliefs, interests, and actors. Political parties compete for power while managing complex regional factors. The rhetoric represents a never-ending struggle for democratic consolidation, frequently disrupted by moments of instability but driven by a steadfast desire for growth and reform.

According to Shuja Nawaz, "There is no political discourse in Pakistan.” Regardless of whether there is any real discourse, the noise is pretty intriguing. In the next paragraphs, I'll attempt to make sense of it. Let us proceed!

STIMSON: "Understanding Pakistan's Post-Election Environment"

An enlightening discussion on "Understanding Pakistan's Post-Election Environment" tonight February 12, 2024, from 10:00 to 11:00 a.m. (US Eastern time): This online-only event explored the factors driving Pakistan's political environment in the aftermath of the recent general elections. Expert panelists discussed major issues impacting election results and the consequences for the country's future. It was a fascinating opportunity to gather vital insights into Pakistan's changing political landscape. I thank STIMSON for hosting this event.

Deciphering Pakistan’s Post-Election Landscape: Insights from Expert Discourse

As Pakistan navigates the aftermath of the 12th general elections on February 8, 2024, the country finds itself in a challenging situation. Following Prime Minister Imran Khan's dismissal in a no-confidence vote on the night of April 9-10, 2022, the political landscape has changed radically. Following the elections, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) emerged as the single largest party at the national level in terms of both popular vote and seats. In a multifaceted crisis, the electoral outcome has left many perplexed, particularly the unexpected rise of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) as the largest political party, despite obstacles such as the lack of an election ballot symbol and the imprisonment of its leader, Imran Khan, and his wife. To add to the uncertainty, much of the party's top leadership had already deserted ship following the May 9 events, which were characterized by chaos and confusion. Stakeholders are closely following the unfolding story as the results emerge.

Total Candidates and Seats Contested:

As many as 17,816 independent and party-affiliated candidates vied for a total of 265 National Assembly, 296 Punjab Assembly, 130 Sindh Assembly, 113 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and 51 Balochistan seats.

Constituencies and Polling:

The polling was conducted in 855 constituencies out of 859. However, due to unfortunate circumstances such as the death of candidates, voting was not held in NA 8, PP 266, PK 22, and PK 91.

Unofficial Results:

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has released unofficial results of 212 National Assembly seats out of 265.

According to the unofficial results, independent candidates lead with 96 seats, followed by 66 seats for Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

National Assembly Results:

Among the National Assembly's 257 constituencies, independent candidates secured victories in 102 seats, followed by 73 from PML-N and 54 from the Pakistan People's Party (PPP).

Provincial Assembly Results:

In the Punjab Assembly's 297 constituencies, independent candidates emerged as the leading winners with 138 victories, followed by 138 for PML-N and 10 for PPP.

In the Sindh Assembly, PPP secured victories in all 84 constituencies reported thus far.

In the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly, independent candidates dominated, securing victory in 91 out of 115 constituencies. However, PML-N clinched five seats, while JUI secured four seats.

Finally, in Balochistan, the PPP emerged victorious, winning 11 seats in the received constituency results, illustrating the various political dynamics across the country.

These preliminary results shed light on Pakistan's emerging political climate, revealing the disparities in electoral outcomes and power distribution among various political entities in both the National and Provincial Assemblies. Despite issues like as political violence and internet failures, vote counting continues, emphasizing the importance of a thorough and transparent democratic process.

Historical Context:

Post-1971, a civilian-led government in Pakistan aimed to establish democracy with the 1973 Constitution, fostering optimism for sustained democracy despite simmering ethnic tensions and religious group activism.

Unfortunately, this hope faltered, leading to the collapse of democracy in 1977, and subsequent scholarly disinterest in studying political parties.

Revival of Democracy:

The restoration of democracy in 2008 reignited faith in political parties, as elections and civilian-led governments rejuvenated interest in party politics.

Longest Spell of Civilian Rule:

With the upcoming 2024 general elections marking the fourth consecutive civilian-led government since 2008, Pakistan has experienced its longest uninterrupted period of party-led civilian rule.

Despite criticisms labeling it as illiberal, hybrid, and corrupt, this sustained period has spurred scholarly and policymaker interest in understanding party dynamics.

Research Focus:

Dr. Niloufer Siddiqui’s book "Under the Gun: Political Parties and Violence in Pakistan" offers provocative insights into political violence often overlooked in academic literature.

Her research spans a decade, utilizing a multi-method approach with over 150 interviews, providing a rigorous and empirically grounded examination of party violence.

Theoretical Framework:

Siddiqui's research focuses on the complex link between political parties, voters, violence specialists, and governmental actors, concluding that parties play an important role in the establishment and maintenance of democracy.

She argues that party violence is explained by organizational structure, local relationships, and strategic cost-benefit calculations.

Key Arguments and Analysis:

The book investigates seven reasons that influence party violence, ranging from political rewards to clientelism and economic gain, and offers evidence-based analysis throughout.

The chapters go into great detail about how major Pakistani parties such as the MQM, PPP, and PML-N used violence for political benefit, notably in Karachi.

Comparative Perspectives:

Siddiqui's work goes beyond Pakistan, providing comparative insights from Nigeria, the Philippines, and other countries, thus strengthening the theoretical resilience of her research.

She critically investigates the changing dynamics of Karachi politics in the face of shifting actors and strategies, highlighting Pakistan's turbulent political scene.

Policy Implications:

The study emphasizes the importance of political parties reducing violence, promoting discussion, and democratizing leadership structures to ensure the integrity of electoral processes.

It promotes local empowerment and dispute-resolution processes while promoting thoughtful voter participation and institutional integrity.

Audience and Impact:

Scholars, policymakers, journalists, and campaign strategists, especially those interested in preserving Pakistan's democracy, will find Siddiqui's book informative and essential reading.

STIMSON recently hosted a panel discussion with three eminent specialists in Pakistani internal politics to explore the intricate factors that support the country's political party competitiveness. The discussion was centered on the release of "Under the Gun: Political Parties and Violence in Pakistan," a major study by Niloufer Siddiqui, a Non-Resident Fellow at Stimson's South Asia program. Siddiqui's research provides a thorough examination of the motivations and mechanisms driving political violence in Pakistan, giving light on an important facet of the country's political environment.

The discussion focused on the significant impact of Pakistan's youth bulge and changing gender dynamics on the political process. Panelists discussed how demographic trends have reshaped political activity and policy discourse, highlighting the need to understand these factors when navigating the electoral landscape.

Furthermore, the conversation delved into the broader implications of political violence and economic issues for Pakistan's foreign policy trajectory. Panelists discussed the interconnectivity of internal dynamics with Pakistan's international posture, emphasizing the importance of a comprehensive approach when developing foreign policy strategies.

The panel discussion highlighted the complexity and unpredictability of Pakistan's post-election landscape. In the face of several problems, educated discussion emerges as a foundation for navigating a road to stability and growth.

Finally, the panel debate facilitated a better understanding of Pakistan's developing political situation. By using scholarly knowledge and engaging in constructive discourse, stakeholders may negotiate the complexity ahead, encouraging resilience and driving Pakistan toward a brighter future.

Personal Touch| Reflections:

A clarion call to action—new social compact —a transformative partnership:

In this critical juncture for Pakistan, the calls for a new social compact serve as a clarion call to action—a transformative partnership based on justice, equity, and prosperity. As Pakistan proceeds forward, adopting these values would pave the way for a more inclusive, resilient, and affluent country.

Addressing Balochistan Grievances: Initiate inclusive political dialogue to address grievances in Balochistan, fostering sustainable solutions through collaboration among political parties and regional stakeholders.

Regional Cooperation for Economic Integration: Foster closer ties with neighboring countries, leveraging initiatives like CPEC to enhance economic integration and promote self-reliance through increased regional trade and investment.

Economic Empowerment through Innovation: Set ambitious targets for foreign reserves and prioritize the development of trade zones with incentives to attract domestic and foreign investors. Invest in emerging sectors like IT and AI to diversify the economy and foster innovation.

Engagement of Youth in Political Process: Recognize the growing influence of young voters and tailor political strategies to engage them effectively through digital platforms and social media, amplifying their voices and concerns.

Advocacy for Civilian Supremacy: Advocate for civilian supremacy and undertake institutional reforms to ensure transparency, accountability, and the rule of law, strengthening democratic institutions.

Peaceful Resolution of Kashmir Conflict: Pursue peaceful resolution of the Kashmir conflict, promoting dialogue with India to foster regional stability and cooperation, and enhancing connectivity and trade between Pakistan and its neighbors.

Acknowledgment of PTI's Political Influence: Recognize the political significance of parties like PTI and foster constructive dialogue and cooperation among all political actors to address the country's challenges collectively.

Redefining Social Contract for Inclusivity: Advocate for a new social contract grounded in inclusivity, equity, and national unity, embracing the diverse identities and aspirations of Pakistan's populace.

Empowering Women and Minorities: Promote gender equality and representation in decision-making processes, safeguarding the rights of minorities and fostering a culture of inclusivity and tolerance.

Institutional Reforms for Good Governance: Implement reforms to combat corruption and strengthen institutions, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of governance.

Grassroots Empowerment and Elite Decentralization: Empower local communities through decentralized governance structures, reducing the influence of elite capture and enabling greater participation of marginalized groups.

Swift Justice System and Legal Reforms: Reform the justice system to ensure swift and impartial dispensation of justice, enhancing access to legal recourse for all citizens.

Strengthening Political Narratives and Pluralism: Promote diverse political narratives and encourage pluralism to foster a vibrant political landscape that reflects the varied interests and perspectives of Pakistan's populace.

Protection and Inclusion of Minorities: Safeguard the rights and interests of minority communities, ensuring their full participation in the socio-political fabric of the nation.

Independent Media and Educational Reforms: Uphold the freedom of the press promote independent media, and implement educational reforms to nurture critical thinking and civic engagement.

Combating Extremism and Promoting Enlightenment: Combat extremism and promote a culture of tolerance and enlightenment, fostering social cohesion and harmony among diverse religious and cultural communities.

Grassroots Empowerment and Power-Sharing: Devolve power to the grassroots level through effective local governance mechanisms, empowering communities to shape their own destinies.

Ending Elite Capture and Ensuring People's Ownership: Dismantle systems of elite capture and ensure power truly belongs to the people, fostering participatory democracy.

Establishment of Truth and Reconciliation Commission: Establish a truth and reconciliation commission to uncover past failures and devise strategies for a peaceful and prosperous future.

Creation of New Provinces: Consider the creation of new provinces like Saraikistan to balance power dynamics and address the grievances of smaller provinces.

Environmental Sustainability: Integrate environmental sustainability into national policies and development plans, addressing issues like pollution, deforestation, and water scarcity to ensure a sustainable future for generations to come.

Promotion of Technological Innovation: Encourage investment in research and development to foster technological innovation and digital transformation, positioning Pakistan as a leader in emerging technologies and creating new opportunities for economic growth.

Social Welfare Programs: Implement social welfare programs to alleviate poverty, reduce inequality, and provide essential services such as healthcare, education, and housing to marginalized communities, ensuring their inclusion in the country's development process.

Youth Empowerment and Skill Development: Invest in youth empowerment programs and skill development initiatives to equip young people with the tools and resources they need to succeed in the modern economy, fostering entrepreneurship and innovation.

Cultural Preservation and Heritage Conservation: Preserve Pakistan's rich cultural heritage and promote cultural diversity, recognizing the importance of heritage conservation in fostering national identity and social cohesion.

Community Policing and Crime Prevention: Implement community policing initiatives to improve public safety and prevent crime, fostering trust and cooperation between law enforcement agencies and local communities.

Promotion of Multilateral Diplomacy: Prioritize multilateral diplomacy and international cooperation to address global challenges such as climate change, terrorism, and pandemics, enhancing Pakistan's role on the world stage and promoting regional stability.

Promotion of Sports and Recreation: Invest in sports and recreation facilities to promote healthy lifestyles and social cohesion, providing opportunities for youth engagement and community building.

Promotion of Arts and Culture: Support the arts and cultural sector through funding, promotion, and education, recognizing the role of culture in fostering creativity, expression, and social change.

Promotion of Religious Tolerance and Interfaith Dialogue: Foster religious tolerance and promote interfaith dialogue to build bridges between different religious communities, fostering mutual understanding and respect.

Promotion of Gender-sensitive Policies: Implement gender-sensitive policies and programs to address gender disparities and promote women's empowerment, ensuring equal rights and opportunities for all citizens regardless of gender.

Investment in Infrastructure Development: Prioritize investment in infrastructure development, including transportation, energy, and telecommunications, to support economic growth and improve the quality of life for all citizens.

These helpful ideas can help accelerate the discussion about creating a new social contract for Pakistan's future.

Acknowledgment: The author thanks STIMSON for organizing an enlightening panel discussion and the distinguished panelists for their significant contributions. Special thanks go to Niloufer Siddiqui for her seminal research on political violence in Pakistan, which expanded the discourse.

My Questions for the STIMSON’S Event Speakers:

1. Given the disparity between economic indicators and voting patterns, particularly for PTI and PML-N, why do people appear to ignore poor performance while casting their ballots?

2. Female voter registration has increased and women’s participation has also increased How do you see it impacting the future electoral map in Pakistan?

3. How do you see the use of digital tools, social media, and AI, especially by PTI voters, in recent elections?

4. How can we reconcile the noise of the Establishment’s meddling and PTI victory which are antithetical as both can’t coexist simultaneously?

5. Religious parties have been eliminated How do you see this trend?

6. Imran Khan’s political narrative has won despite his issues of performance while in government. Are narratives stronger than performance?

7. Youth aged 18–35 will continue to play an important role until 2049, according to Adil Najam (Geo TV last night). PTI has won their support. What can other parties do to win over the youth vote for their survival in the next elections?

8. Is the state for the people or the people for the state?

9. Is the election a panacea in Pakistan?

Thank you for hosting such an enlightening session to make sense of the post-election situation in Pakistan.

Riaz Laghari, Lecturer in English, Islamabad, Pakistan

Sources:

STIMSON: Event: Link

TFT: Link

Geo Election Cell 2024: Link

Siddiqui, N. A. (2022). Under the gun: Political parties and violence in Pakistan. Cambridge University Press.

Staniland, P. (2023). The evolution of civil wars research: From civil war to political violence. Civil Wars, 25(2-3), 187-207.

Turnbull, M. (2024). Incumbent Responses to Armed Groups in Nigeria and Kenya. Studies in Comparative International Development, 1-30.