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Between Hopes and Hydrocarbons: Do we have oil reserves, or merely oil hopes?

Between Hopes and Hydrocarbons: Do we have oil reserves, or merely oil hopes?

I am not an expert in oil exploration or global energy politics. But like many others, I was intrigued by a recent Truth Social post by U.S. President Donald Trump. While announcing new tariffs on India, he also claimed to have concluded a deal with Pakistan to jointly develop its “massive oil reserves”—and even floated the idea that Pakistan might one day sell oil to India.


“We have just concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves… Who knows, maybe they'll be selling Oil to India some day!” —Donald J. Trump, Truth Social, July 30, 2025


At first glance, the statement seemed like political theatre. But as I looked deeper—out of sheer curiosity rather than expertise—I found that there is indeed credible documentation of untapped oil potential in Pakistan. While the development of these reserves remains technologically and financially demanding, it is not a hoax. It is a possibility.


This article is a reflection of that curiosity, not a technical verdict. It draws from government reports, industry analyses, and media coverage to explore whether the vision Trump casually floated might have some foundation. I welcome critique and correction from those better informed. My hope is simply to spark a more grounded conversation about a subject too often dismissed before it’s understood.


Between Hopes and Hydrocarbons: The Reality of Oil Reserves in Pakistan


The idea that Pakistan sits atop untapped oil riches periodically resurfaces in public discourse—usually in moments of economic stress or geopolitical flux. But to move beyond romantic speculation and confront energy policy with intellectual honesty, one must ask: Do we have oil reserves, or merely oil hopes?


To answer that, we must distinguish resources from reserves, potential from proof, and geology from geopolitics. Too often, these terms are collapsed into each other, creating a dangerous illusion of imminent abundance. What Pakistan actually has is modest proven reserves, fragmented exploration history, and large zones of speculative potential—not an oil bonanza waiting passively to be “unlocked.”


Reserves, Not Rumors

As of the latest consolidated data, Pakistan’s proven crude oil reserves stand at approximately 353.5 million barrels—a figure slightly higher than often quoted but still marginal on a global scale. These reserves are concentrated in the Potwar Plateau, Kohat Basin, and southern Sindh, extracted by public and private operators with relatively conventional methods. This meets just 10–15% of the country’s domestic oil demand, leaving Pakistan dependent on imports to the tune of $17–19 billion annually.


What’s often mistaken for optimism is the repeated invocation of “undiscovered potential.” The USGS and other bodies have indeed highlighted possible accumulations in the Indus offshore, Balochistan’s frontier basins, and shale zones. However, these are technically recoverable resources, not commercially viable reserves. The leap from theoretical models to extractable oil is not incremental—it is existential.


Lessons from the Kekra-1 Mirage

The most illustrative case is Kekra-1, the highly publicized deep-sea well drilled in 2019 by ExxonMobil, ENI, OGDC, and PPL. Its geological modeling was robust. It had the depth, structure, and trapping formations that signal high probability. Yet, after nearly $100 million in drilling costs, it yielded a “water-wet” reservoir. No commercial oil. No reserves.


This was not a fluke; it was a reminder that oil exploration is high-risk capital, not geological inevitability. Pakistan’s record—over 70% of exploratory wells being dry—should temper rhetoric about “unlocking” hidden wealth.


The Real Barriers: Capital, Capacity, and Credibility

Pakistan does not lack ambition; it lacks exploration depth, data granularity, and investor confidence. The state’s upstream policy regime remains tangled in bureaucratic inertia, regulatory opacity, and political volatility. Licensing rounds are delayed, offshore data is outdated, and pricing frameworks remain unattractive to international oil companies (IOCs).


Moreover, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) like OGDC and PPL, though technically competent, are constrained by financial conservatism, procurement inefficiencies, and a strategic aversion to high-risk plays. Without partnerships with technologically advanced firms, frontier exploration—especially deepwater and shale—remains improbable.


Comparisons with Brazil’s offshore boom or Israel’s Mediterranean gas success are tempting but deeply misleading. Those breakthroughs involved multi-billion-dollar risk appetites, high-resolution 3D seismic surveys, and stable investment climates—none of which currently exist in Pakistan.


What an Oil Find Would—and Wouldn’t—Do

Yes, the discovery of a sizeable reserve would be economically transformative. It would reduce pressure on the current account, improve energy security, and potentially stimulate downstream infrastructure. But oil is no longer a geopolitical panacea. We are entering a post-carbon era, where the time-to-market for fossil reserves must be balanced against climate commitments and stranded asset risks.


Moreover, without robust resource governance, provincial equity, and transparency mechanisms, new finds can just as easily exacerbate corruption, rentier politics, and regional instability. Balochistan offers a sobering reminder: resource presence without consent breeds conflict, not development.


Recalibrating the National Conversation

It is time to decouple national pride from speculative energy narratives. Pakistan must invest not just in exploration acreage, but in technical education, geophysical data acquisition, institutional strengthening, and risk-sharing frameworks that can attract serious capital. The Petroleum Division’s recent push for open data and digital seismic mapping is a step in the right direction, but execution remains sluggish.


Most importantly, the public must be educated: having a resource is not the same as possessing a reserve. And a reserve is only valuable if it can be produced profitably, safely, and within a stable contractual environment.


Beyond the Oil Mirage

Pakistan may hold pockets of hydrocarbon potential, but oil is not waiting to be “discovered” like a buried treasure. It is pursued—at great cost, with no guarantees. To pretend otherwise is to mislead investors, policymakers, and citizens alike.


The future lies not in hype, but in humility—recognizing the limits of our current capacity and the work required to convert resource speculation into real, responsibly managed energy assets.


In addition to conventional reserves, Pakistan is believed to possess significant shale oil and gas potential, particularly in the Lower Indus Basin and Potwar region. According to a joint study by USAID and the EIA, Pakistan’s shale formations may hold billions of barrels of recoverable oil and trillions of cubic feet of gas—though unlocking these resources requires substantial technological capability and capital investment. This is where U.S. cooperation becomes crucial. The recently announced U.S.-Pakistan energy development initiative, if pursued seriously, could catalyze not just conventional drilling, but also shale exploration, horizontal drilling, and hydraulic fracturing. American companies could transfer expertise while building long-term strategic partnerships. This, in turn, might alter Pakistan’s domestic energy trajectory—and perhaps, as Trump hinted, even reshape regional trade, with India one day importing oil from Pakistan.


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Riaz Laghari

Riaz Laghari

Lecturer in English: "Learn to live, live to learn" sums up my life philosophy. I regard education as an infinite process, with special interests in language, ELT, and Pakistani political discourse. Through my work, I hope to inspire in my students a similar love of learning and a curiosity about the world. I explore these themes on my blog at http://riazlaghari.blogspot.com.

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