Energy is the bloodstream of modern economies. For Pakistan, the dependency on imported oil—costing between $17 and $20 billion annually—has become a defining vulnerability, pushing the country into chronic balance of payments crises. To many Pakistanis, the idea of indigenous oil reserves has long seemed more political theater than reality, with successive governments touting “game-changing discoveries” that quietly vanished. Yet credible geological studies, including USAID-sponsored surveys in the 1980s and 1990s, and more recent findings by the Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) and Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), confirm that Pakistan sits atop a significant but underdeveloped oil potential.
The myth of a “resource hoax” is rooted in history. Early exploration in the mid-20th century produced underwhelming results, feeding public skepticism. Political leaders then compounded the problem by exaggerating routine finds, reinforcing the perception that every new “discovery” was another mirage. This narrative obscures the harder truth: the geology is real, but governance has failed.
Consider the science. Pakistan’s sedimentary basins—particularly in Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan—rank among the more promising in South Asia. A USAID study in 1991 highlighted at least 27 sedimentary basins, several with commercial viability. More recently, international firms such as ENI and MOL Group have extracted oil and condensates from fields in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, proving reserves are not speculative fantasies but commercially tapped realities.
The stakes are immense. Domestic production could offset a portion of Pakistan’s import bill, narrow its trade deficit, and strengthen energy security in a region prone to geopolitical shocks. Beyond macroeconomics, oil development could generate thousands of jobs and direct investment into some of Pakistan’s most underdeveloped regions.
So why hasn’t Pakistan unlocked this potential? The obstacles lie not beneath the soil but above it. Policy inconsistency and bureaucratic inertia discourage investors who must commit capital for decades. Technological gaps—particularly in drilling deeper reservoirs—have left much of the oil inaccessible. And security challenges, especially in Balochistan, scare off the foreign firms best equipped to take risks.
The solutions are hardly mysterious. Pakistan needs transparent, investor-friendly contracts to attract international oil companies. It must equip its national firms with modern technology and skilled manpower, a task that requires genuine institutional reform rather than patronage. Partnerships with multilateral agencies such as the Asian Development Bank or USAID can bridge knowledge gaps. And most critically, oil exploration must be embedded within a balanced energy strategy that simultaneously invests in renewables, ensuring Pakistan does not mortgage its future on hydrocarbons alone.
Critics argue that the world is moving away from oil, and therefore Pakistan should look past fossil fuels altogether. The counterpoint is pragmatic: the global transition will take decades, and Pakistan cannot leapfrog to a post-oil economy while its present is defined by energy poverty and financial instability. Tapping domestic reserves is not an indulgence; it is a necessity to stabilize the present while preparing for a cleaner future.
Oil in Pakistan is not a hoax. It is a reality—documented, surveyed, and partially tapped. The tragedy is not geological misfortune but political short-sightedness. If Pakistan can summon the will to govern effectively, its reserves could ease economic pressures, create a more secure energy landscape, and provide the bridge it desperately needs toward sustainable development.
The oil is there. The question is whether Pakistan has the competence—and the courage—to use it.
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