America’s leaders warn about adversaries gaining ground in artificial intelligence. Yet the greatest risk isn’t an external rival, but an internal failure: the steady leakage of the very minds driving AI innovation. Immigration bottlenecks — especially the broken H-1B visa system — are quietly draining away the world’s top scientists and engineers, jeopardizing U.S. security and competitiveness.
Consider the H-1B lottery, the gateway for many foreign graduates who want to stay and work in the United States. In fiscal year 2024, there were 780,884 registrations for only 85,000 available visas, leaving applicants with barely a 24.8% chance of selection. The process is further distorted because most demand comes from just two countries: 72% of approved H-1Bs went to Indians and nearly 12% to Chinese workers. These are the very countries that Washington views as its fiercest AI competitors. For the young researcher in Boston or Seattle hoping to stay, the odds are punishing and the uncertainty crushing.
This lottery failure collides with another reality: America’s STEM graduate programs run on international talent. In fields like computer and information sciences, around 70% of full-time graduate students are international. Yet the U.S. does a poor job keeping them. A study found that only 37% of international students who graduated between 2012 and 2021 were still in the U.S. by 2023. Even for those who win an H-1B, renewal anxiety and green card backlogs push many to leave. The U.S. invests heavily in training them — then hands the dividends to Canada, Europe, or back to Asia.
PhD graduates are a partial exception. Roughly 77% of international STEM PhD graduates from 2000–2015 were still in the U.S. as of 2017. But that statistic hides the deeper leak: the thousands of master’s graduates — those with precisely the technical skills most sought after in industry — who are forced out by immigration ceilings. Canada has capitalized on this weakness with its Global Talent Stream, which offers work permits in as little as two weeks. The U.K. and France have also created fast-track visas for AI specialists. America, meanwhile, dithers.
The cost of this failure is not abstract. Immigrants have been central to the U.S. innovation economy. A National Foundation for American Policy study shows that 65% of the top U.S. AI companies had at least one immigrant founder, and 42% of those founders first came as international students. These firms are not small operations: immigrant-founded unicorns employ an average of 859 workers each. More broadly, research shows that each international graduate who secures a visa can help generate two to five additional jobs for U.S.-born workers. The evidence is overwhelming: far from “taking jobs,” high-skilled immigrants create them.
And yet, the U.S. is actively discouraging them. A 2024 survey found that while about 70% of international STEM students still hope to work in America, growing numbers now plan only short stays. Many already assume they will need to move elsewhere within three years. The very students America is training are lowering their expectations before they even graduate.
Some argue that loosening visa rules would hurt U.S. workers. But the reality is the opposite: losing immigrant talent shrinks the pie. The greatest beneficiaries of immigrant-founded companies are not the founders themselves but the thousands of Americans they employ. To deny this talent a future in the U.S. is to deny opportunity to native-born workers too.
The solution is not radical. Congress has already flirted with a “STEM visa”: bills like the Keep STEM Talent Act of 2023 (H.R. 5477) proposed exempting advanced STEM graduates from annual visa caps. The idea has bipartisan support but has languished in legislative gridlock. Passing such a measure would directly plug the pipeline leak, ensuring that the best AI minds trained in the U.S. can stay in the U.S.
This is not about “open borders.” It is about open eyes. America cannot afford to spend billions educating the brightest engineers and scientists only to drive them into the arms of its rivals. Nor can it rely on adversaries’ mistakes as a long-term strategy for staying ahead.
The quietest national-security threat America faces is not hidden in some faraway lab. It is happening at its own airports, as plane after plane carries away the graduates, researchers, and entrepreneurs who wanted to build the future here — but were told they couldn’t stay. If Washington fails to fix this, the sound of their departure may one day drown out even the loudest alarms about America’s place in AI.
